The epistemic structure of de Finetti's betting problem
Publication Type:Conference Paper
Source:9th Italian Convention on Computational Logic (CILC 2012), Volume 857, Rome, p.241--245 (2012)
De Finetti’s conception of events is one of the most distinctive aspects of his theory of probability, yet it appears to be somewhat elusive. The purpose of this note is to set up a formal framework in which a rigorous characterisation of this notion, and its cognate modelling assumptions, gives rise to a detailed formalisation of the betting problem which underlies the celebrated Dutch Book Argument. As our main result shows, this re?nement captures an intuitive condition which de Finetti imposed on the betting problem, namely that it is irrational to bet on an event which may be true, but whose truth will never be ascertained by the players.